Ren.. you may already know much of this... but, just my 2 cents as a frequent flyer. In fact, I've flown 3 different airlines just in the past few weeks. They do vary a lot. But... only once in all my times I've flown have I had to ask for an extender ( I THINK it was on continental, but I couldn't swear to it). I was mortified, but the attendant was very blase about the whole thing, so it seemed like it was a regular, no big deal, kind of thing to her.
I'm still bigger than you are right now, and I haven't had to get one on any recent flights. Some seats have been very uncomfortable, some have been absolutely fine. Some belts have been fine, some have been tight---hard to generalize.
But... here are my words of wisdom, if you will...
If you bring your own extender, you're all set.... you can do it fairly subtly, if you're trying to be discreet. No one will even know.
If you don't bring your own -- you might want to either:
WHILE you're getting on (and there is ALWAYS a back up while people are trying to get down the aisle, and there are alwasy attendants standing at the front) simply quietly tell the attendant that you may need an extender. S/he may be able to hand it to you right then while everyone else is too busy to notice, or they can at least get it to you without you having to lean over someone else and ask. or...
try to get to your seat quickly so you can sit down and gauge it for yourself. Then, if need be you can still try to discreetly mention your need to the attendant while they are moving about.
If you're traveling with someone, it's a bit easier, because you can lift the arm rest that is between you. If it's a stranger in the seat next to you, they might want it down, but you can at least raise it until you get settled.
Aisle seat is probably best because you can stretch your legs a bit... however, you also are the person who has to get up every time someone else wants to go to the bathroom, etc.... pros and cons though, because then at least you're not the one squeezing through when YOU want to go to the bathroom. And,.. on long flights you should make sure you get up and walk a bit about every hour or two. So... six of one, half dozen on the other.
My biggest advice, to tell you the truth, is to get there as early as you can and, when you get your boarding pass, try to get an exit aisle. On flights that are so long, you'll want to be able to have the tray table down for drinks, dinner, doing other things. I think that's more often a bigger problem then the seat belt. Once in a while, the exit aisles have seats with arm rests that DON'T move up... that's a pain if you're wide in the hips. If that happens, you can always tell them you don't want to be in an exit aisle and almost anyone will jump at the chance to trade with you. Trust me

You don't have to tell them why.
Can you tell I've thought a lot about this? lol because I fly a lot, this is on my mind everytime I get on an airplane.
Honestly, though, I don't think you'll have trouble at all with the belt. Like I said, I'm a size larger than you -- and most of my weight is my middle -- and I've been ok on almost all airlines.
Depending on what you're flying, there will be some options. Usually overseas flights seem to be a bit more accomodating, and often use planes that are more comfortable. Hope that happens to you.
Have a great trip!!