I decided to run to Sears today and try on pants to see where I'm at size-wise. I grabbed the same style pair of pants (black, elastic waistband, cotton I think, not sure but they're nice looking) and tried on a 16W. It was a little snug (like...please don't shrink!) but definitely wearable with a top that comes down over my belly. The legs fit perfectly!
In about 3 weeks when I have some cash, I'm going to go back and try on pants again, only this time I'll actually buy some. Who knows, maybe I'll be slipping on 14's by then!