I say go more by the clothing fit and the visible results, too. It never fails, every time I change my exercise I hold four-six pounds of water weight for two, three, sometimes four weeks and it makes me crazy! Even little bitty changes result in two pounds! I used to beat my head into the wall over it! Don't worry, it will settle out.
Though, I do agree with a couple of points - the cardio monitors on the equipment are inaccurate, for me sometimes by 100% or more - my HRM said I burned 205 calories this week in an hour on my exercise bike, the bike monitor said 632... I would suggest buying a heart rate monitor - mine is a Polar F60 I think, and I love it. Also, if you exercise more you might need to eat a little more, protein, that kind of thing. I never did the 'eat back exercise calories' thing, but I did add in 100-150 calories per day of protein.
Good luck!
