You can't really know if it's water weight for sure. People lose a lot of water at the beginning of a diet, especially low carb, usually because they drink a lot of water while they are dieting and that releases the water they were retaining, plus other things are going on. If someone says they gained but it's probably water it may be because they know they have eaten a lot of salty foods and/or have barely drank any water.
As far as I know I don't really know if you can know for sure. Sometimes I think it's just a cliche you know? I know that when you eat carbs you store water with it, it's just the way your body works, so when you lose, you of course lose some water, but who knows. All I know is that if I lose a pound I am happy no matter what it is and if I gain a pound I don't care if it's water I don't like it. Although you can probably be pretty sure that if you lose or gain a lot of weight with in a few short days that some of it has to be water coming or going.
Sorry that didn't really answer your question.
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