All those calculators - whether metabolic or calories burned during exercise - are guesses, based on averages that might have nothing at all to do with YOUR body. Honestly, you'll drive yourself

if you try to reduce weight loss to crunching numbers, especially because every calculator out there is going to give you DIFFERENT numbers to crunch.
Your body is going to lose weight at its own pace, taking its own good time. You might do everything exactly the same and lose five pounds one week and none the next. That's just the way it goes! Instead of worrying about the numbers, maybe try just picking a reasonable level of calories (maybe 10 or 11 times your goal weight?) and exercise for 60 to 90 minutes every day, per the latest government recommendations. Do a combination of cardio to burn calories and weight lifting to build muscle. Weigh yourself once a week and adjust your calories and exercise as necessary. This way you'll learn how YOUR unique body reacts to diet and exercise.
The pay-off for tuning into your body and its caloric needs is learning exactly what you'll be required to do to maintain your weight loss once you reach goal. You'll discover the magic combination of calorie input and exercise expenditure that lets you maintain your ideal weight. And that's the whole point of what we're all doing, right? Learning how to keep the weight off for life!!
I've never paid the slightest bit of attention to any of the calculators, whether it's the theoretical calories burned on a cardio machine or how many calories I can supposedly eat and maintain my weight (let me tell you, that number is so far off it isn't even funny

) I just track my calories, log my exercise, and weigh myself regularly. And when the scale goes up, I cut back on the calories and/or increase my exercise. Simple but quite effective.
