Well, weight fluctuates a lot. I've lost track of my weight from day to day, I write it in different places and it gets lost.
I started at 290, and I'm at 284.5 now after about 3 weeks. But it's screwy. I went from 290 to 286 the first week. And then to 283.5 the second. But now it's up to 284.5 on the third. I do vary what I eat a lot, and exercise, and my TOM is sporadic so it's hard for me to guess that. Some days I drink a ton of water, some I don't, I eat too much sodium in general because I don't home cook, that I know.
I eat anywhere between 1400 and 2000 calories, tending to average around 1600-1700. Just depends on how hungry I am, what I eat, if I'm depressed or stressed (and how that happens to trigger me in relation to food that day). I'm probably too new to base anything on, though.
No clue why I went up a pound from last week. I suspect that the 283.5 was just on the low side of my weight fluctuation, and the 284.5 is more in the middle. But who knows. I'm hoping to look from the first of one month, to the first of the next, and seeing 4-8 pounds lost.
Edited to add in answer to your question, do you feel hungry? Do you feel like you don't want to eat as much, but need the calories? I'd gauge it off your hunger, and wouldn't worry too much until you see how it goes for a few weeks. I get obsessive myself about if I'm eating too much, or not eating enough. I'm at the point where I've decided, eh, screw it. Looking at my calories for the past 14 days on Fit Day, I've eaten the following amount of calories: 1472, 1593, 1986, 1871, 1738, 1424, 1607, 1559, 1351, 1708, 2054, 1855, 1448, 1639. If I average them (easy to guesstimate on FitDay) it looks like 1500-1600 calories on average. So I guess I'm doing okay. I'll let you know in 3 months.