Bite the bullet and try them on, of course!
Anecdote: Last week, I was in Walmart and saw some super cute bootcut jeans on sale. They were only $10 (!!!!). BUT they were only a size 16 (!!! all my jeans are 18s). I just bought them. And they sat. And sat. And sat. They looked so much smaller than my 18s, I couldn't figure out how they'd fit.
Well, they did, like a glove.
Even if they hadn't, nothing ventured, nothing gained. If the 22s don't fit, you haven't "failed." You just haven't made it there YET. It will give you a good indicator of how much further you need to go!
All that aside, remember than no two jeans are the same. A 22 is not a 22. Some are bigger or smaller, some are cut differently, some sit funny...because of how they're cut, 2 pairs of the exact same style can be wildly different. So don't get discouraged if one pair doesn't fit. Just grab a different pair.
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