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I am short so I am thinking... I am going to stay in the same size for a while...
Ichoosetobelieve - I am 5'4", so just an inch taller than you. I saw the biggest size drop between, say, 270 and where I am now. I am pretty sure I went from 24s to 20s in that range. It depends on how you are built, of course, but it may happen faster than you realize!