I'd say setting your goal depends on how much you weigh now. My experience is that the more you weight now the more you'll be able to lose before Jan 16th.
I have a maximum of 50 lbs to lose. I believe from past experience that it will take me longer to lose this 50 lbs than it would take someone else (who has a total of 100 lbs to lose) to lose the same 50 lbs. Does that make sense?
To me it seems like the more you have to lose the faster you can lose it. At least at the beginning, then you start losing slower. (and then you get frustrated, and then you plateau, and then you gain, thus is the vicious cycle of weight management).
Personally I'm trying for a 30lb loss by June 1st. That's slightly over 1 lb. per week. Of course this past week I've lost 5lbs. If I keep that up I'd reach goal in 6 weeks, but realistically I know that won't happen. Nor would it be healthy if it did.
Oh no, I've written another novel. I hope this didn't hurt more than it helped.