The "math" and figuring deficits never works for me, either...so I never ever count my exercise calories burned and do all that...no matter what my supposed defecit says...it doesn't mean that I am going to lose that week.
When things aren't moving for a while, here are some things that I do:
~eat cleaner for a period of time
~eat DIFFERENT foods than ones that I do all the time-for instance, if I eat oatmeal every morning, and have for quite a while...and I eat chicken breast for dinner a lot-then I will change things up and have eggs and fruit for breakfast for a while...and fish more often at dinner. Same calorie level...but different foods than what my body is accustomed to digesting.
~Changing my exercise. If you walk on the treadmill 5 days a week...your muscles get used to doing that particular activity, and don't have to work as hard. Ride a stationary bike, or a bike outdoors...do an aerobics video...do the elliptical at the gym-basically, just do something similar (as far as cardio or resistance) but replace it with a *different* activity that your body isn't used to.
~Change up the intensity of your workouts. Heavier weights...a 40 minute Pilates video instead of a 30 minute one...adding a 1/4 mile to your daily walk-just something small that "adds up" over the course of a week's time. Small things like that make a difference over the long haul.