I think "facts" depend on one's personal point of view. For every fact I find substantiating one side of the equation I can fine an equally supported fact supporting the other side.
Common sense to me says the following --if calories don't matter, then anorexics wouldn't "be". Anorexia is probably the most extreme example of calorie restriction and the fact that they lose significant amounts of weight when calorie restricting means that calories do matter. It also stands to reason that the body will adapt to fewer calories to preserve itself, which is why anorexics can live for years (but not forever) eating an apple a day. Dieters of course are somewheres inbetween.
It also stands to reason that there is new evidence showing that added sugar is a problem physiologically speaking. I won't go into more details, because anyone can google them, but current recommendations to limit the amount of added sugar to one's diet are out there for a reason.I also think that certain bodies may get more or less energy out of a specific type of calorie than others, so some may be better suited to low carb or high carb or whatever. However, there are no magic foods out there whereby one can eat unlimited amounts of one type of food and lose weight, meaning that calories at some point do matter.
Bottom line -- you can lose weight by calorie restricting regardless of the type of food that you eat. You can ose weight by low carbing it. You can lose weight by eating x number of Twinkies per day.You can lose weight on an all-rice diet I think the only "fact" in this matter is to find out what you can reasonably do and stick with it. I think some form of caloire restriction is required, whether intentional (i.e. you are a pastaholic and want to keep eating pasta so you'll have to cut down) or unintenitional (i.e. many low-carbers may find their intake is naturally restricted due to feeling fuller sooner with a higher fat and protein content diet).
I also think through personal experience (although you don't want personal experiences here) that low calorie high "junk food" diets are less satisfying than low calorie "real food" diets and that one has to make a fundamental shift in what one eats instead of simply limiting what one eats in order to have long-term change.
There is no end of "fad" diets and I ues that term only to mean diets that rise and sink in popularity and there is no "one answer fits all" in my opinion. If one truly believes that grains should never be eaten, go for it! If one can lose weight by eating only Twinkies, go for it! If one thinks that Primal is the way, go for it! Same goes for Atkins/Ornish/Pritiki/'Mediterranean/French/Outsmart the Female Fat Cell/Blood Type/you name it diet.Any of these ways will result in weight loss provided that energy expended is more than calories taken in and that this effect will be amelliorated by how an individual processes each calorie component (as this may be a unique thing). I've really never heard of a sedentary person being able to eat 6,000 calories a day (regardless of type or category of calorie) and losing weight. The harder thing is maintaining that weight loss and in that case, a personally realistic plan is the only thing that works. Trying to make a meatitarian into a vegan without a fundamental shift of paradigm may not work in the long run.
I know, probably didn't answer your qeustion but I really think there is no definitive answer. Science/personal experience/choice will play a huge role, and for many, it's like a religion and not even worth debating. Find what works for you and stick with it (as long as it isn't clearly dangerous and that your basic nutritional requirements are met). And don't assume that your personal answer is applicable or appropriate for everyone - nothing more annoying than having someone play the "blame game" with respect to one's weight loss because they think that you have to do what they have chosen to do .
