Seems like I have those at the beginning of almost every month. Maybe I didn't exercise as hard as I could have and I just try to lie to myself, and wonder why oh why the scale hasn't budged. But then I remember that I have in fact lost SOME weight, which is better than none, and that it IS possible. I don't know- I can see physical changes with my body, even if they aren't SUPER noticable yet, and it makes me feel good.
Everybody's body is capable of changing... it just takes time. I know I can lose weight, but I have this funny feeling it's going to take years to look how I want. Everyone is different. You have to find what works for you.
For the most part, calorie counting is the best thing I've ever gotten into, with the exceptions of a few minor tweaks here and there. It helps me feel like I still have some control, even when I'm not exercising. I look at it this way: I spent 21 years fat, technically obese. I wasted my teen years on food. I don't want to do that anymore, and ANY progress I make now is better than what I was when I was a teenager. But there's a limit of how much "feel good because you're doing good for yourself, but sort of slack off and lie to yourself" you can dish out to yourself, at least IMO. (Hope that doesn't sound rude! It's mostly aimed at me, because I do it a LOT, but maybe you do too, idk) If you want to see progress, you have to actually work for it.
Just try not to be so hard on yourself, we all have off days, and some of us even have super-off-binge-days. I love Jillian Michaels view on things, "every day is a clean slate, a new day to start over."
(I'm not good with words, so sorry if I offended anyone! And if you can see what I was TRYING to say, please quote me and try

I'm so bad with words.)