LONG! MATH! Help a newbie counter with calories burned

  • Sorry this is SO LONG. Please bear with me as I try to figure this out:

    I've got my basal metabolic rate figured out at about 1700 calories. (I'm 5'5", 210 pounds and 41 years old).

    My understanding is the basal rate is for just keeping your body running -- not for any type of regular daily activity (not including exercise). FitDay adds 20% for sedentary (bedbound), 45% for seated work, and 65% for seated work with some movement -- the leap between 20% and 45% and then to 65% seems HUGE for what I do: sit at a computer all day and then take care of a 2-year-old in the evenings and before work.

    I am trying to lose between 1.5 and 2 pounds a week, so I'm considering adding 35% to my BMR for my activity level and NOT adding any calories to compensate for exercise (banking those calories burned as "bonus" weight loss) and then doing the math to create a 5,250-7,000 cal/week deficit like this:

    1,700 * 1.35 = 2,295 = daily BMR + regular activity
    2,210 * 7 = 16,065 = weekly BMR + regular activity
    16,065 - 5,250 to 7,000 = 9,065 to 10,815 calories/week
    9,065 to 10,815 / 7 = 1,295 to 1,545 calories/day

    Does this make sense? Roughly 1300-1500/day seems low to me -- or do I have to go that low to lose at the rate I want to lose? If so, where do I go from there once I lose weight and get smaller -- I'll only require fewer calories to continue losing at the same rate, right? I don't think it's really safe to go much below 1200. I do realize that I may lose faster based on the added exercise I am trying to get in (30 minutes/day, 5 times/week of light aerobics is my current goal -- which at my weight should burn about another 1,000 calories).

    Up until now, I've been aiming for 1,600-1,800/day (some higher, some lower ranging from 1,200 to 3,000). In theory, this is only a 3,465-4,865 weekly calorie deficit (.99 to 1.39 pounds/week). My fitday says I've eaten on average 1,600/day for the past month and I've lost 9 pounds in that time (but this is my first month, and I know some of that early weight was water).

    So, should I stick with 1,600-1,800 that I know I can do and see how that works for awhile and adjust from there -- or should I believe the math that says I should be between 1,300 and 1,500? Or split the difference and aim for 1,400 to 1,700 averaging 1,550?

    In theory, 1,550 would be 1.5 pounds/week -- and if I do my 150 minutes/week of low-impact aerobics, that'll get me another 0.33 pounds, and put me right in the ballpark of 1.5-2 pounds/week. At 1,550, I'd be aiming for <30% fat (<52 grams), 20% protein (78 grams) and 50% carbs (194 grams).

    I'm feeling a little math obsessed. Can you experts help me?
  • I would stick with what you are doing as long as it keeps working. You don't want to go so low that you have nowhere else to go. I wouldn't lower my calories unless the scale didn't budge for 4 straight weeks. You want to be able to still be able to eat when you hit goal. Just my opinion.