I lose about a pound a week, but it only averages out to that when I look at a long period of time, a couple of months. Some weeks I don't lose anything or even gain a pound or two. Other weeks, I have a whoosh and lose 2-3 pounds.
I feel strongly that what matters is not whether you weigh less this week than last week - it's whether you weigh less now than you did a month or two or six ago that is the real measure of success.
My plan is basically calorie counting. I don't count calories strictly every day, but I have a target amount in mind and I have been at this long enough that I know what foods in what amounts and what combinations I should eat in my daily routine to hit that target. I do count strictly for a week or so each month, just as a reality check, and to make sure my portions aren't creeping. I also exercise 4-5 days a week.

The first week was 6, the next 2 were 2 and 3 per. I'm calorie counting (1400 per day) and exercising 1/2 hour 6x/week.
