i think a lot of it is vanity sizing AND the cut of clothing now. I was never smaller than a junoir's 9, my hips were then 4 to 6 inches smaller than they are now and my waist was also 6 to 8 inches smaller. my bust has remained the same (i'm an apple, and carry most of my weight in my belly) clothing being cut lower on the waistline is a blessing to me, because my hips are slightly smaller... if i were to wear something that was higher on the waist i would definitely be a size up from where i am now. nothing is cut like that nowadays though, and i am a women's 12 in most clothing lines.. once i reach my goal i am estimating i will more than likely be a size 6, which was unimaginiable for me even in high school. my build has not changed much - i was althletic then with very little fat and i have a naturally thicker waist and that is not going to change, i'm sure. i've never had much in the curves department. starting this journey though, i was a size 22...it's taken me a long time to get to where i am now...over 4 years... my size vs weight ratio has a lot to do with muscle... once i began exercising and weight training sizes dropped and dropped even though the scale wasn't, and didn't drop as dramatically as my clothing sizes did. most people estimate by looking at me that i'm approximately 30lbs less than i am - which often feels great (my preg. boss was complaining to me recently about how she is 165 lbs at the moment and was shocked when i told her that my non-preg self was over 15lbs heavier than she was)

Good question! I don't think I was ever a size 4! But, two years ago I was a 16-18 (I'm there again) and 187 at my highest (I'm higher now). Then I went to 155 and was a size 10 jeans and a size 8 dress pants! I couldn't believe it! I can't wait to get down to that size again! I felt so beautiful and thin! So, it is possible to get in the single digits. :carrot:

Oh, and when I hit 155 again, I will have a lot of "new" old clothes. :woohoo:

I guess a lot of it depends on your body shape. I started at 186 and a size 18. Now, at about 155 I'm still a 14 - I can just barely squeeze into a 12! I think it's because my waistline is my biggest trouble spot. I do exercise, but as we all know, you can't spot reduce.

You are absolutely correct. I can remember when I went to David's Bridal for a bridesmaid fitting. I got a size 18 and the lady was measuring me. She said, "You have the perfect measurements." Well I busted out laughing and wanted to know what measuring tape she was using! LOLOL Well, she told me that I have "perfect" proportions. Maybe that's why I was 155 and able to fit into an 8. I don't have an hour glass or pear shaped figure. My breasts take up a lot of my body, though! :o

Height would make a big difference too. I'm 5'8 & even at my thinnest (120), I wore a size 7/8 (back before vanity sizing). As for excess skin, everyone's experience varies. When I first started losing weight, I had some loose skin hanging from my arms, but it seems to have toned up and I even glimpsed some muscle definition! :) It's one of the reasons I'm doing weight training even though I like cardio better. Plus the weights help with building bone strength & building muscle to burn fat more effectively. Also, I've heard drinking a lot of water (which I do anyway) & moisturizing the skin (which I'm doing more of now) helps with excess skin. And it depends on the pace of the weight loss. But as people have posted excess skin is different for everyone.

The way I look at it, whatever ends up happening, it's still an improvement over where I was when I started. So I try to focus more on establishing/maintaining the moderation in eating & the exercise habits more than numbers in dress sizes and the scale. I started at a size 22/250 pounds. I'm a 16 or 14 depending on the cut now. And vanity sizing is definitely a reality. My previous heaviest weight (before the weight gain which led to my highest ever) was 180 back in 1991/1992. Then, size 16s barely fit and were tight. Now, at 10 pounds heavier than I was then, I can sometimes fit comfortably into 14s, so something's obviously happened to the sizes. That's why they had to introduce size 0s because the 2s were made bigger.

If the question is really how much weight can a person realistically expect to lose, I suspect the answer varies from person to person, and in a sense we can't predict it, we can only do our best and see what happens.

If we assume that once a woman wears a size 24, she can never lose enough weight to fit into a given size, in this case a size 4, then can I assume that I will never lose enough to get out of plus sizes, having been a size 36 at 396 lbs. Can a 500 lbs woman, never get below 250 lbs? I don't think we can determine ahead of time, how much we will ultimately be able to lose (or how much loose skin we will have to deal with afterward), we can only deal with whether we can lose that next pound.