thanks a lot for looking at this for me

week numbers
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Corresponding weights
234.6
229.6
225.8
224.8
223.2
218.6
219.4
214.2
211.8
214.2
212
209.6
208.4
205.2
207.2
207.6
203.4
202.6
203.4
202.4
197
197.4
196.4
196.4
194.6
195
193.8
192.2

Your average weight change over these weeks is -1.4 lbs/week but it appears to be somewhat steeper in the first 10 weeks. Pretty respectable, I think.

Unfortunately, for some reason Excel won't yet let me expand the vertical axis so I can see temporary ups and downs. Sometimes I get it to work, sometimes I don't. And the Apple people have stopped giving me free online help and now want me to buy the help.

By comparison, my average over 40 days is -0.99 lb/week but over the last five days I've somehow averaged -1.05 lbs/day. Regardless, I've felt over the entire 40 days that I am almost starving myself.
BTW, because of food transit time, less than a three day average does not mean much and because of weekly variations, seven days is a good minimum. To avoid systematic errors from weekly variations, taking a reading every 6 or 8 days is probably a good idea.



Got the graph to work, my mistake, this time I wrote down the steps to reformat an axis.

Your change from week 17 and on is more or less a straight line at -1.1 lbs/week and so for next few weeks you can expect pretty much the same.

BTW, a straight line doesn't fit your data too well - in the first 6 weeks you lost 2.9 lbs/week - it's concave upward so it's an exponential or reciprocal curve. But my Excel doesn't do sophisticated curve fitting so I use the straight line method and your last few weeks are following a pretty good straight line.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curve_fitting

There are probably pdf documents on the Web where researchers have come up with formulas for the weight loss over time for most people.

Speaking of which, do you have data for the first 20 days or so, and the last 20 days? The daily variation might provide a clue as to whether you changed your habits or your body has adapted to the weight loss routine.

With your data and mine we have two sets of samples to compare with others on this forum. A good start, and I can always use practice in interpreting graphs and data.

Been to Germany & England, never to France except for the Colmar region. Got to do it soon!

I've attached a file of my weight journey.

The large up/down variations seemed to smooth out after day 20. I guess you could say I've reached 165, and will take 100 days to reach 150 (-0.96 lb/wk trend)

Thanks, this is very helpful and somewhat reassuring, as I know the weight loss was faster earlier on, but it's nice to know you're seeing a consistent trend of about a pound a week in the more recent period.

I do have daily weights from the first 20 days and the last 20 days as well, here they are (I'm only posting the numbering 1-20 once, ok?)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

first 20 days weights
234.6
233
230.6
230.4
230.6
230.4
229.6
229.6
230
228.2
226.8
227.4
227.4
225.4
225.8
226.4
224.8
224.2
225
224.8

Last 20 days
195
193.6
194.2
193.2
193.8
193.6
193.4
193.8
192.8
192.4
192.6
193
192.2
191.6
192.2
193.4
191.4
193.8
192
190.6
193
191.4

There are some diet changes - at the first period I was doing very low carb ketogenic, and in the last period I'm doing low carb but paleo autoimmune protocol, my carbs are up considerably in the current period (from under 20g to closer to 50-60). Calorie target is about the same, but obviously I'm smaller now. No change in exercise.

Again, thanks a lot!

1st 20 days, -0.47 lb/day and a + or - 1 lb variation.

Last 20 days, -0.13 lb/day and a + or - 2 lb variation and the peak to peak variation is growing. It looks like my graph in the early days and looks like it's going out of control. Something is going on.

From what I've seen so far, one general comment is that people can lose at a high rate for a short period but a lower rate for a longer period and so it's a type of reciprocal relation. I may be able to find pdf papers on the Web that give limits to this curve.
I've noticed the same on exercise machines: I can put out 750 cals/hr for a short period but the same number of calories all day long.

I think there is an analogy between this kind of weight loss time series and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_chart
so there may be a way to warn dieters when they are really losing it.

You're welcome.

For sure weight in the early weeks of a ketogenic diet comes off really quickly, at a pace that never repeats (in my experience and what I've observed from others). I love that rapid weight loss but I'd be worried about my health for the long-term if it kept up like that forever!

The more recent period would be worrying me if I didn't already know why my weight loss has slowed. Since I changed my diet March 1st I'm eating 3 or 4 times as many vegetables (and thus carbs). And while it's left me feeling great and energetic, I think some days it's kicked me out of ketosis, in particular on days when my protein is also on the high side. It's actually reassuring to see that there is a -0.13/day loss more recently, because the scale has been moving up and down quite a bit (probably in part due to the fact that physically I'm moving my scale in my bathroom whereas normally I leave it alone!).

Wobbly, thank you very much for putting your Excel skills & time for analysis to work for me on this - I really appreciate it.

Best to you! - Sarah

I'm losing weight again and I am hungry again but at least now I know what ketosis is.
TV commercials showing food are bad enough but now I have to look away from even printed words referring to food.
If I don't fold in the next few days I might get to 160 very soon.