They are complete estimates/estiamted guesses. Metablic online calculators (that estimate what you burn a day depending on your height/age/lifestyle and all that, plus the calorie estimates burned during exercise are estimates as well.
There really is no need to figure your deficit each day. If you are exercising, eating healthy and at a calorie level appropriate for you-and you are losing weight equal to 1/2-2 pounds per week or so-then you are creating a deficit that is appropriate for you-with no calculating it necessary. I, and many others here, have never sat and figured out our daily deficits-simply because of the innacuracy of them. I focus, instead, on my exercise, the quality of my diet, and my measurements/scale findings instead.
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