Okay, you asked for thoughts, so I'm gonna give you mine, though you might not like them....
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I, have, of course had my "off days" for parties
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I brought my calories per day to around 1900 (some days higher)
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Because I'm comfortable with the calorie amount, I think it's the exercise.
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Hmmm, I think I may have to respectfully disagree with you on this one. I don't believe the issue is your exercise and/or calories burned.
I think it's the calories that you're taking in. So they you may be comfortable with the calorie count, I don't think you're providing enough of a calorie deficit day in and day out, on a steady basis to get you that pace that you are after.
You can't have it both ways. You can't go higher on your calories and indulge at parties AND expect to have steady weight loss results or more than those 4 lbs which you lost in July. It just can't be.
All the exercise in the world can't negate too many calories being consumed.
In fact a very commonly thrown around statistic is that weight loss is
80% diet (food) & only 20% exercise.
I can point you in the direction to LOTS of folks around here who adhere to their calorie budget regardless of stress, parties, holidays, picnics, Saturdays, joy, boredom, sadness, etc.
Of course we all have slip ups, but they really need to be far and few between and minimal, again, if its' that steady, consistent weight loss (pace) you're after.
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I know I need to do something different in order to lose weight at the pace that I think is more realistic at my current weight.
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I think the something different is to learn how to navigate parties, holidays, stress, etc, WHILE staying WITHIN your calorie range - IF it's steady results that you're after.
You're working hard already - why not kick it up a notch - and transform your life???