Someone on here has said previously diet is for weight loss, exercise is for looking good. Diet makes you look good in clothes, exercise is what makes you look good naked.
I didn't start exercising regularly until about 6 weeks ago. I have lost weight previously through just diet alone and I always HATED exercise with a passion but that's because I think I was trying to keep up with everyone in the gym or doing stuff because I thought I should do it and I got burned out and miserable.
I found I prefer to exercise alone mostly where no one can see me. I got a used fluidity bar (yes the one from the cheesy infomercial) for 80 bucks on craigslist and went to town in my basement. I found something I really like doing- I think that's the key. You need to find an exercise you enjoy and actually like doing (it doesn't sound like you're crazy about the bike). I did this for 3 or so weeks and at about this point in time EVERYONE and I mean everyone started coming up to me at work and saying how awesome I looked. I went down a scrub size and all my coworkers, docs, and transporters even started complimenting me left and right on how great my legs were looking how skinny I was getting and how awesome my butt was looking (we are all friendly and I take it as a huge compliment that my coworkers are now staring at and mesmerized by my butt
). When I was dieting alone and dropping way more pounds on the scale no one said a word, when I started toning up with exercise that's when the compliments started a-flowing!
I started the C25K jogging program 3 weeks ago to add in some cardio and actually while I was doing running my weight loss on the scale stalled out and I actually gained weight due to water retention but I looked better and my clothes fit better. Finally the scale let go of all that water retention this week due to time and a little illness (yikes I'll spare ya the details on that one). Even though I hardly lost any "weight" on the scale (maybe 6 pounds) I went down 2 sizes. 2! When I was dieting alone I had to lose about 25 pounds before going from a 14 to a 12 and no one freaking noticed and it took agonizing 3-4 months. A month and a half with exercise and only a 6 lb shift on the scale and I'm into a size 8 like that and looking and feeling great.
Sorry for the novel. Can you tell night shifters who are awake on their nights off are bored and go a little stir crazy with no one to talk to
But to get to your original question while you may technically "lose" more on the scale alone with diet due to water retention exercise may cause, if you incorporate exercise you're going to be smaller faster (use a tape measure and your clothes as your guide).
And I never believe those calories burned calculators either; they always seem so off. I think the only really accurate way to find calories burned is with a heart rate monitoring device. I don't exercise so much that I think I'm burning crazy amounts of additional calories so I don't worry about how many I burn or factor that in (it's probably like 250 at the max daily) I just think of it as bonus and don't really adjust my eating around it.
Of course everyone is different but that's just a little about me. Minimal exercise (we're talking a 30 minute a day commitment 5 times a week) has changed my body leaps and bounds. It probably would have taken me 3 times as long with just diet alone to fit in the size clothing I do now and I probably would have been squishier and lumpier and not looked as good
Take it from a reformed exercise hater (bad middle school gym experiences-oy!) that it really is a great thing to do for you and your body. Start slowly, work your way up, and don't try to do too much too fast. Find something you like and will want to do on a regular basis and I promise it will have you looking and feeling great much quicker than just the diet alone.