kaybee - 211 is awesome!!!!
I "know" it's water weight if it's a big gain over a short period time, followed by a big loss over a short period of time. Like the quote above me, it's really hard to gain 3 pounds of fat (even from an indulgent vacation) in a short time period, and it's equally hard to lose that much weight overnight. So, if you gain quickly and then lose it quickly, it's probably just fluids. It sounds like you probably gained and then lost water weight, plus losing fat, since you're below your initial low.
A measuring tape couldn't hurt, though, but if you're noticeably bloated from water, the measuring tape won't be kind either.
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And, btw, NYC WAS FABULOUS! (next time I'm eschewing vanity and bringing good, solid, walking shoes).
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Haha! Glad you had fun. I say that about the shoes every time, but have yet to actually wear sneakers in NYC lol (shoe inserts are wonderful!)