I struggle with this question too, now that I am five pounds from "goal." But my body has made it abundantly clear that I will need to reset my goal weight to around 120-125. My personal reasons for this decision are:
1) I have a very small frame & am still at about 25-30% body fat. My little frame is carrying more fat than it wants.
2) My waist size (33") puts me at higher risk for diabetes. I have a lot of belly fat, which needs to be lost to ensure my health. I will never have a 25" inch waist. I'm shooting for a 29-30 inch waist.
3) At age 40, I have much more fat and less muscle
I need to work to lose fat and build muscle and bone.
As for a maintenance strategy, you have thought about it more than me. Your maintenance diet sounds sensible. As for me, I don't know what I am going to do when I get close to goal. Probably, I'll post on 3FC and ask for guidance. At the moment, I think I'll probably count calories eaten/expended more closely and see if I can get my weight to level off.