so today's meal plan, ill eat 1971 calories. so far ( as of 3:00pm pacific) i have burned 3228 calories
Yes, that would put you in a calorie deficit ... BUT ...
I have to ask how you know you've burned that many calories. Especially "as of 3 p.m." That's an extraordinary number of calories to have burned before the day is even 2/3 over.
At your height/weight, with no exercise, your BMR is around 3000 calories per day. Add in 30-60 mins of moderate exercise and you could probably add another 600 cals to that.
So having burned that many calories only by midafternoon seems unlikely.
Just my immediate thoughts on reading your post.