It varies a lot. Sometimes people swore I had lost when the scale hadn't moved. Sometimes it moved a lot without commensurate commentage
But I noticed the same thing about measurements - they didn't necessarily correlate with the scale. The body is a complicated thing!
And of course, some of it is how you dress and fix yourself up (too small or too large clothing both make a really big difference in how big you look), and also how much sleep and relaxation you get.