I don't think that estimate is unreasonable. I would use the BMR as a starting point but reevaluate after a few weeks or according to how you feel (hungry/not hungry).
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I lost 40 lbs between Nov 2010 and Nov 2011 doing low-sugar for my "50 Pounds in 50 Weeks" project. I bounced back up 10 lbs over 6 months. Now I'm back for round 2: "Hot for My Husband!"
Checkpoints along the way:
The beginning (143.0 lbs): May 23, 2012
BMI=25.0 (136.6 lbs):
Lowest adult weight ever seen (129 lbs):
Upper range for frame size (121 lbs):
Final goal weight (115 lbs):
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