Doesn't sound high to me as a ballpark estimate.
I'm not even training for races and I'm losing on 2200 average and 30 min easy exercise 5x a week.
I second checking out
Can't expect a fire to burn without giving it some wood.
Can't expect metabolism to meet all your "not be dead" body functions like breathing, heart beating, etc AND fuel a training program for a race well AND deal with the biochemistry processes of shedding extra fat if you don't give it enough fuel.
Check out the chart.
Another estimate, but eye opening to see that 1400 is kid level.
If you feel nervous about going to 2500 ish, go to 1800 or 2000 then. See how that feels and how you are feeling. We all want to lose, but losing too fast brings other problems besides just skin sag because it didn't have time to catch up and adjust. Poor performance, dizzy, hunger, etc. It's just not a comfortable ride on down, and increases odds of giving it up entirely.