It's not real fat/muscle weight. As you mention, there can be huge fluctuations in body weight depending on a lot of factors, including how much sodium or alcohol you consume (eating both things usually makes my body retain water), how dehydrated you are (surprisingly, more water I drink less my body seems to retain), how much you exercised the day before (muscles retain more water to help it recover), etc.
I think weight loss and gain trends should be looked at on weekly if not monthly basis (although I also find doing daily tracking to be helpful) and any big changes to the program should be done on this kind of a time frame.
Keep your sodium and alcohol consumption to a minimum over the next couple of days and drink a ton of water. I bet your weight will go back down quickly.
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