Umm, I don't know - July 4th is like right around the corner.
Some folks drop 5 lbs the first weeks, others 2, others 1, others none. Then there's week 2. Which could vary even more then week 1. THERE IS NO WAY TO KNOW FOR SURE. Anything would be a pure guess.
As for dropping a jean size, I didn't change sizes till I lost 35 lbs or so. Again - we can't possibly tell you these things. There's just no way to know. No one even noticed my loss till then. I forget - it may have even been 50 lbs. No one noticed and I didn't drop a size in the first few weeks, but that didn't matter much. I knew that if I stuck with my plan, that EVENTUALLY I WOULD start reaping all the wonderful benefits of staying with a healthy eating/exercising program.
How should you go about doing this? Well, that's also for you to decide and I think you may have. Calorie counting and walking is a great way to go. These are things that you can do
long term. Long after the fireworks have all fizzled down.
If you truly want to be inspired, why don't you just do your
very best from here on in - forget July 4. Make a
commitment to get the weight off - permanently - in however long it takes.
By the time July 4 rolls around , and you staying with a healthy program - well that would be time very well spent and you can be in a good groove by then.