Even factoring out TOM, the scale will frequently be up or down a few pounds without regard for your actual weight loss. Even if I'm perfectly on program, I can't *count* on weighing less than I did a month ago every day. BUT, the weight *does* trend lower, and I see new lows every once in a while, despite the setbacks.
Here's one trick I use to avoid getting psyched out by the scale...
I keep a "fat effigy" that represents a half pound for every consecutive week I've been on program. I'm willing to guarantee myself that much weight loss (on average, I seem to be losing closer to 1 lb a week). The "fat effigy" is something that weighs as much as my "guaranteed" weight loss (currently a bag of rice plus a block of suet). I add 1/2 lb to my fat effigy every week I am on program, no matter what the scale says. My fat effigy is significantly behind in terms of my scale loss, but I love the fact that I can always add to it.
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