Finale i think the calculator is a good estimator. If you're really worried about your goal, maybe consult your gyno (mine has been very influential) or your general MD. Or even your coach. I don't have an amazing relationship with my coach, so that's why I haven't consulted her. She actually didn't even ask me about my goal...just sells the products! I set my goal based off this calculator but I also don't remember being below 190 in my life so I may stop before I get to 160!