Just be patient. TOM, can wreak all kinds of havoc.
One thing I have done that has helped, is to weigh each morning under the same circumstances, jot it down on the calendar above my scale, and then ignore it until the end of the month.
At the end of the month, I take a look at the calendar and my food journal.
What this does is give me feedback as to how different things affect what is going on.
When I first starting doing this, I kept a food journal, a thought journal and the calendar, stuck with it, and didn't actually do anything with it for 90 days.
The reason is I wanted to track trends, and get long term feed back. This gave me a great insight, as to what certain foods and activities and hormones and stress, and so on, had on what I was doing.
Basically, instead of beating my self over the head, I took a long term, objective approach, like it wasn't even me, and looked for feed back, and gave up the failure mentality.