I hope the girls kick butt tonight, but at this point, I'm not placing bets on anyone but Roger for the finals. I think he'd have to have a serious stall not to make it now.
From the desk of the numbers dork, here's the current stats:
Ali - 36%
Mark - 36%
Jay - 31%
Kelly - 29%
It looks like Ali and Mark have it wrapped up, until you figure in the fact that they are close to being left with nothing to lose, since they are both at healthy weights now. Jay and Kelly are both under 200 already, but Kelly still has more to lose than Jay, since he's 7 inches taller than she is. Roger is under 240 (?) According to one "ideal weight" table, he could be as low as 180. Kelly could be able to get down as low as 133. Jay as low as 172. Good greif, it says Mark could go as low as 157. Gross. He'd be skeletal. Ali could lose down to 114. (all according to the ideal weight charts I googled, not my personal opinion)
1000 miles in 2010 - 7/1000