I don't have very much experience yet but yeah, I'd say it can definitely be your monthly (you mean period, right?). I always hear girlfriends talking about how bloated they feel right before-hand and during. I always find myself peeing like nuts when I'm on my period, so I'm sure it has some sort of effect on us.
I know it's hard and so upseting, but try to keep going and in a few days if not sooner, the scales should bounce back
. Physiologically, 200 pounds is really nowhere near enough to gain an extra pound, or whatsmore, four - so I think you're safe there
And sometimes our weight just shifts for some strange reason, I think it's usually water related and not fat or weight gain. I think it's all part of our body keeping itself going. But in the end, if you keep up what you've been doing, it sounds like you'll see change in the long-run (weight loss change I mean